Markets

Midterms

WWhich party will win the House in 2026?Democratic Party90.5%Republican Party9.5%15 holdingVol $618.3K

BBalance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats Sweep62.5%R Senate, D House28.5%Republicans Sweep8.5%36 holdingVol $590K

WWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?No Hormuz Agreement93.9%▲9.1ppHormuz Agreement; D Senate3.2%▼5.2ppHormuz Agreement; R Senate3%▼3.8pp15 holdingVol $464.6K

WWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?No Hormuz Agreement95.8%▲4.3ppHormuz Agreement; D Senate1.9%▼2.4ppHormuz Agreement; R Senate1.7%▼2.3pp22 holdingVol $297.9K

WWho wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?Oil ≥ $80; D Senate55.4%▲0.9ppOil ≥ $80; R Senate31%Oil < $80; D Senate5.6%▼2pp11 holdingVol $163K

TTexas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D)62.5%Ken Paxton (R)37.5%19 holdingVol $108.4K

AAlaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola73.5%Sen. Dan Sullivan25.5%▼1pp7 holdingVol $99.6K

WWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?Democratic Party63.5%Republican Party36.5%6 holdingVol $81.7K

NNevada Governor Election WinnerAaron Ford (D)52.5%▼2ppJoe Lombardo (R)47.5%▲2pp7 holdingVol $61.3K

FFall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate ComboBolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems37.5%Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps17.5%▼1ppBolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems11%▼5.5pp8 holdingVol $50.1K

WWho wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?Oil ≥ $85; D Senate51%▼0.5ppOil ≥ $85; R Senate26%▲0.1ppOil < $85; D Senate11.8%▼1pp21 holdingVol $45.4K

MMichigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D)70.5%Mike Rogers (R)29%▼1.5pp11 holdingVol $26.7K