Campaign Mia

Trump telling Fetterman to switch parties has very little to do with the Democratic nomination field.

That 1% split Congress is barely anyone's pick, but if the Senate's really that close, both chambers together shouldn't cost this much.

That 6% for Harris isn't necessarily about her personally; right now almost everyone else is at zero, and the money has to go somewhere.

It's over a year away, so this price isn't really worth it.

DWhich party will win the House in 2026?Democratic PartyNow9.5¢−0.2¢

离投票还有一年多，九成一的价我觉得有点买满了。

民主党全胜六成多，可那档共和党控参院加民主党控众院的价一直没跟着动，看着有点别扭。

Both chambers are priced together, the House gets counted twice; the more lopsided the leading market, the bolder people are to bet the other way.

DBalance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats SweepNow37.5¢+0.5¢

It only falls apart when you break it down: Democrats sweep at 64% treats the House as a lock, but the 28% bucket of Republicans taking the Senate plus Democrats taking the House basically says the House is safe for Democrats too, and both buckets together cover the House — so why does a Republican blowout still get 9%? I'm not sure about the Senate, but the math doesn't add up, and the sweep price is way too full.

89¢? That price is too full. Leading is not winning. I'm on the other side at 12¢.

IBulgaria Presidential ElectionIliana IotovaNow13.5¢+1.5¢

81¢? That price is too full. Leading is not winning. I'm on the other side at 19¢.

PSpain General Election WinnerPPNow15.5¢−4.5¢

91¢? That price is too full. Leading is not winning. I'm on the other side at 10¢.

AFlorida Senate Election WinnerAshley Moody (R)Now9.5¢−0.5¢

Those four names add up to only 1%, yet some people are fixated on Ossoff's 15% — that 15% isn't even in this market, so the comparison doesn't hold. The better question is: since Clinton is also only worth 1%, how much of that 1% is the name "Clinton" itself rather than Chelsea?