US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.