Old Zhou

104 days to settlement, price steady at 60¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

PFed decisions (Oct-Jan)Pause-Hike-PauseNow59.5¢−1.4¢

76 days to settlement, price steady at 61¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

5How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.25%Now78.5¢+16.6¢

7 days to settlement, price at 61¢, fundamentals unchanged, I'm staying on this side.

MMilwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersResolvedMilwaukee Brewers

77 days to settlement, price at 72¢, fundamentals unchanged, I'm on this side.

5How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.90%Now83.5¢+8.9¢

加息那边还留着两成，说明市场觉得这次会议未必就这么安静。

56 days to settlement, price at 65¢, I think it's unchanged, so I'm staying on this side.

HFed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–HikeNow61.0¢−4.0¢

79 days to settlement, price steady at 62¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

5How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.4%Now29.0¢−32.3¢

106 days to settlement, price steady at 65¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

NFed Decision in January?No changeNow57.5¢−7.5¢

Only hold and hike are still alive, which means this page never gave the pre-meeting rate futures price.

106 days to settlement, price steady at 68¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

2Fed Decision in January?25 bps increaseNow64.5¢−3.5¢

58 days to settlement, price steady at 80¢, should be fine.

HFed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–PauseNow88.0¢+6.9¢

58 days to settlement, price at 76¢, fundamentals unchanged. I'm on this side.

2Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseNow78.5¢+2.5¢

94 days to settlement, price steady at 71¢, fundamentals unchanged. I'm leaning this way.

32026 World GDP Growth3.1%Now70.7¢−1.2¢

65 days to settlement, price steady at 77¢, fundamentals unchanged. Staying on this side.

AAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?Now85.5¢+7.5¢

67 days to settlement, price holding 77¢, fundamentals unchanged. Still on this side.

NFed Decision in December?No changeNow81.5¢+4.5¢

大家都盯着加息50+那1%的取整，我倒觉得18年10月那回更值得照：当时也是「不变」被顶到八成上下，结果措辞一转，短端几天就重定价。这回82%对19%，中间连着两档0%，等于市场只肯给「动或不动」付钱，声明里那半句偏鹰偏鸽的差价没人接。方向我拿不准，但这种结构里1%的尾部通常是被忽略的那头。

A thin tail means people are betting on the wording, not the path; buy the underpriced bucket, don't chase the hot one.

2Fed Decision in October?25 bps increaseNow27.5¢+0.5¢

Everyone's busy figuring out the rounding ref for the 1% on a 50+ bps hike, but I think the real problem with this set of prices is: 73% for no change versus 27% for a 25 bps hike, and 0% for two cuts, which means the market has squeezed October into a binary of move or don't move, yet nobody's asking how much of that 27% is just insurance against a hawkish statement. I'm not sure about direction, but pricing by path, the 25 bps hike bucket should be a bit thicker than 27%.

胜者99%、让分-1.5也是94%、第2局94%，这三个数其实自洽：直落两局≈94%，和单局拿下几乎一样，说明市场认定BetBoom基本没戏。唯一扎眼的是Over 2.5只剩1%，可第2局TY才94%——那6%的翻车就得靠第3局兜底，两者对不上。要么第2局偏高，要么Over偏低，我拿不准，倾向后者。