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Fed Decision in September?25 bps decrease1.2%No change73.5%50+ bps decrease0.4%$302.7k Vol9月16日 截止Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?43.5%市场概率$31.7k Vol12月31日 截止How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 4.5%16.5%Above 5%7.5%Above 10%2.8%$4.5k Vol12月31日 截止Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?2.6%市场概率$2.5k Vol12月31日 截止Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?June 30, 202711.5%December 31, 20264.5%$1k Vol12月31日 截止Peak US National Debt before 2027?$40 trillion99.9%$39 trillion100%$41 trillion41%$829 Vol12月31日 截止Which companies will the US take a stake in?OpenAI21.5%Palantir10%GlobalFoundries87.2%$507 Vol12月31日 截止What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↓ 2.25%2.6% ↑ 4.25%14.9% ↓ 2.75%2.3%$423 Vol12月31日 截止Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in September?No Change10.5%Increase88%Decrease0%$235 Vol9月2日 截止Will Argentina dollarize by...?December 31, 20263.5%June 30, 20260%$143 Vol12月31日 截止How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?2.0%1.7%3.5%4.3%3.9%11.9%$42 Vol12月31日 截止USMCA extended in 2026?20.5%市场概率$15 Vol12月31日 截止Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?6.5%市场概率$11 Vol12月31日 截止Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?24%市场概率$18.6k Vol12月31日 截止Will France pass a national budget by December 31?30.5%市场概率$8k Vol12月31日 截止Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?5.7%市场概率$5.8k Vol12月31日 截止Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?16.5%市场概率$95 Vol12月31日 截止OPEC dissolves in 2026?4.5%市场概率$32.4k Vol12月31日 截止Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?1.7%市场概率$5.6k Vol12月31日 截止US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?12%市场概率$2.2k Vol12月31日 截止Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?June 30, 20260%December 31, 202642%$45k Vol12月31日 截止Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?No change60.5%50+ bps decrease1.4%25 bps decrease1.4%$11.2k Vol10月28日 截止Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?Yes0%December 3145.5%$732 Vol7月31日 截止Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?7.5%市场概率$1k Vol12月31日 截止

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